Complex Event Analysis - Report

Complex Event Analysis - REPORT

Supporting narratives:

• momentum (Read more)
• That's one reason multi-country comparisons have struggled to identify dynamics that sufficiently explain the trajectories of different places.
  Once we recognize super-spreading as a key lever, countries that look as if they were too relaxed in some aspects appear very different, and our usual polarized debates about the pandemic are scrambled, too
• High Level Abstractions:
• (countries,super-spreading)

• challenge (Read more)
• This finding is not rare: Multiple studies from the beginning have suggested that as few as 10 to 20 percent of infected people may be responsible for as much as 80 to 90 percent of transmission, and that many people barely transmit it.
  This highly skewed, imbalanced distribution means that an early run of bad luck with a few super-spreading events, or clusters, can produce dramatically different outcomes even for otherwise similar countries.
• High Level Abstractions:
• (countries,super-spreading)

• challenge (Read more)
• However, looking at nine months of epidemiological data, we have important clues to some of the factors.
  In study after study, we see that super-spreading clusters of COVID-19 almost overwhelmingly occur in poorly ventilated, indoor environments where many people congregate over time.weddings, churches, choirs, gyms, funerals, restaurants, and such.especially when there is loud talking or singing without masks
• High Level Abstractions:
• (covid-19,super-spreading)

• challenge (Read more)
• Meanwhile, if the bar has a person infected with COVID-19, and if it is also poorly ventilated and loud, causing people to speak loudly at close range, almost everyone in the room could potentially be infected.a pattern that's been observed many times since the pandemic begin, and that is similarly not captured by R. That's where the dispersion comes in.
  There are COVID-19 incidents in which a single person likely infected 80 percent or more of the people in the room in just a few hours. But, at other times, COVID-19 can be surprisingly much less contagious. Overdispersion and super-spreading of this virus are found in research across the globe. A growing number of studies estimate that a majority of infected people may not infect a single other person
• High Level Abstractions:
• (overdispersion,super-spreading)

• challenge (Read more)
• Nor could it impose a full lockdown or strict stay-at-home orders; even if that had been desirable, it would not have been legally possible in Japan.
  Oshitani told me that in Japan, they had noticed the overdispersion characteristics of COVID-19 as early as February, and thus created a strategy focusing mostly on cluster-busting, which tries to prevent one cluster from igniting another
• High Level Abstractions:
• (japan,stay-at-home)
• (desirable,overdispersion)
• (japan,overdispersion)
• (covid-19,overdispersion)
• (overdispersion,stay-at-home)

• challenge (Read more)
• Once an infected person is identified, we try to find out with whom they interacted afterward so that we can warn, test, isolate, and quarantine these potential exposures. But that's not the only way to trace contacts
• High Level Abstractions:
• (interacted,overdispersion)

• challenge (Read more)
• Once an infected person is identified, we try to find out with whom they interacted afterward so that we can warn, test, isolate, and quarantine these potential exposures. But that's not the only way to trace contacts. And, because of overdispersion, it's not necessarily where the most bang for the buck lies
• High Level Abstractions:
• (exposures,overdispersion)

• challenge (Read more)
• Nor could it impose a full lockdown or strict stay-at-home orders; even if that had been desirable, it would not have been legally possible in Japan.
  Oshitani told me that in Japan, they had noticed the overdispersion characteristics of COVID-19 as early as February, and thus created a strategy focusing mostly on cluster-busting, which tries to prevent one cluster from igniting another.
• High Level Abstractions:
• (cluster-busting,overdispersion)

• challenge (Read more)
• R)"; in contrast, "backward tracing increases this maximum number of traceable individuals by a factor of 2-3, as index cases are more likely to come from clusters than a case is to generate a cluster."
  Even in an overdispersed pandemic, it's not pointless to do forward tracing to be able to warn and test people, if there are extra resources and testing capacity
• High Level Abstractions:
• (overdispersed,traceable)
• (individuals,overdispersed)

• challenge (Read more)
• When a series of clusters linked to nightclubs broke out in Seoul recently, health authorities aggressively traced and tested tens of thousands of people linked to the venues, regardless of their interactions with the index case, six feet apart or not.a sensible response, given that we know the pathogen is airborne.
  Perhaps one of the most interesting cases has been Japan, a country with middling luck that got hit early on and followed what appeared to be an unconventional model, not deploying mass testing and never fully shutting down
• High Level Abstractions:
• (japan,pathogen)
• (health,japan)
• (japan,middling)
• (japan,seoul)

• challenge (Read more)
• When a series of clusters linked to nightclubs broke out in Seoul recently, health authorities aggressively traced and tested tens of thousands of people linked to the venues, regardless of their interactions with the index case, six feet apart or not.a sensible response, given that we know the pathogen is airborne.
  Perhaps one of the most interesting cases has been Japan, a country with middling luck that got hit early on and followed what appeared to be an unconventional model, not deploying mass testing and never fully shutting down.
• High Level Abstractions:
• (japan,model)

• WIP (Read more)
• From an overdispersion and super-spreading point of view, Sweden would not necessarily be classified as among the most lax countries, but nor is it the most strict.
• High Level Abstractions:
• (countries,super-spreading)
• (countries,overdispersion)
• (lax,overdispersion)

• WIP (Read more)
• In reality, although Sweden joins many other countries in failing to protect elderly populations in congregate-living facilities, its measures that target super-spreading have been stricter than many other European countries
• High Level Abstractions:
• (countries,super-spreading)

• WIP (Read more)
• For super-spreading events to occur, multiple things have to be happening at the same time, and the risk is not equal in every setting and activity, Muge Cevik, a clinical lecturer in infectious diseases and medical virology at the University of St. Andrews and a co-author of a recent extensive review of transmission conditions for COVID-19, told me.
  Read: I have seen the future.and it's not the life we knew
  Cevik identifies "prolonged contact, poor ventilation, [a] highly infectious person, [and] crowding" as the key elements for a super-spreader event
• High Level Abstractions:
• (covid-19,super-spreading)
• (super-spreading,virology)
• (super-spreading,university)

• WIP (Read more)
• It also encouraged social-distancing, and closed down indoor places that failed to observe the rules. From an overdispersion and super-spreading point of view, Sweden would not necessarily be classified as among the most lax countries, but nor is it the most strict
• High Level Abstractions:
• (overdispersion,super-spreading)
• (overdispersion,social-distancing)
• (social-distancing,super-spreading)

• WIP (Read more)
• Meanwhile, in Daegu, South Korea, just one woman, dubbed Patient 31, generated more than 5,000 known cases in a megachurch cluster.
  Unsurprisingly, SARS-CoV, the previous incarnation of SARS-CoV-2 that caused the 2003 SARS outbreak, was also overdispersed in this way: The majority of infected people did not transmit it, but a few super-spreading events caused most of the outbreaks
• High Level Abstractions:
• (overdispersed,super-spreading)
• (overdispersed,sars-cov-2)
• (overdispersed,sars-cov)
• (sars-cov-2,super-spreading)

• WIP (Read more)
• In reality, although Sweden joins many other countries in failing to protect elderly populations in congregate-living facilities, its measures that target super-spreading have been stricter than many other European countries. Although it did not have a complete lockdown, as Kucharski pointed out to me, Sweden imposed a 50-person limit on indoor gatherings in March, and did not remove the cap even as many other European countries eased such restrictions after beating back the first wave
• High Level Abstractions:
• (european,super-spreading)

• WIP (Read more)
• But, at other times, COVID-19 can be surprisingly much less contagious. Overdispersion and super-spreading of this virus are found in research across the globe. A growing number of studies estimate that a majority of infected people may not infect a single other person
• High Level Abstractions:
• (super-spreading,virus)
• (overdispersion,virus)

• WIP (Read more)
• To fight a super-spreading disease effectively, policy makers need to figure out why super-spreading happens, and they need to understand how it affects everything, including our contact-tracing methods and our testing regimes.
  There may be many different reasons a pathogen super-spreads.
• High Level Abstractions:
• (super-spreading,super-spreads)

• WIP (Read more)
• However, the moment we see signs of a cluster, we can rapidly isolate everyone, again while awaiting further individualized testing via PCR tests, depending on the situation.
  Unfortunately, until recently, many such cheap tests had been held up by regulatory agencies in the United States, partly because they were concerned with their relative lack of accuracy in identifying positive cases compared with PCR tests.a worry that missed their population-level usefulness for this particular overdispersed pathogen.
  To return to the mysteries of this pandemic, what did happen early on to cause such drastically different trajectories in otherwise similar places
• High Level Abstractions:
• (overdispersed,pcr)
• (overdispersed,usefulness)
• (overdispersed,regulatory)
• (overdispersed,united_states)
• (overdispersed,positive)

• WIP (Read more)
• Similarly, focusing on the R alone, or using a flu-pandemic playbook, won't necessarily work well for an overdispersed pandemic.
  Hitoshi Oshitani, a member of the National COVID-19 Cluster Taskforce at Japan's Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare and a professor at Tohoku University who told me that Japan focused on the overdispersion impact from early on, likens his country's approach to looking at a forest and trying to find the clusters, not the trees
• High Level Abstractions:
• (japan,national_covid-19_cluster_taskforce)
• (japan,overdispersed)
• (japan,oshitani)

• WIP (Read more)
• This is especially helpful because some of these tests can be administered via saliva and other less-invasive methods, and be distributed outside medical facilities.
  In an overdispersed regime, identifying transmission events (someone infected someone else) is more important than identifying infected individuals.
• High Level Abstractions:
• (individuals,overdispersed)

• WIP (Read more)
• However, the moment we see signs of a cluster, we can rapidly isolate everyone, again while awaiting further individualized testing via PCR tests, depending on the situation.
  Unfortunately, until recently, many such cheap tests had been held up by regulatory agencies in the United States, partly because they were concerned with their relative lack of accuracy in identifying positive cases compared with PCR tests.a worry that missed their population-level usefulness for this particular overdispersed pathogen.
  To return to the mysteries of this pandemic, what did happen early on to cause such drastically different trajectories in otherwise similar places.
• High Level Abstractions:
• (overdispersed,trajectories)

• WIP (Read more)
• The baffling examples go on.
  Each weekday evening, get an overview of the day's biggest news, along with fascinating ideas, images, and voices.
  I've heard many explanations for these widely differing trajectories over the past nine months.weather, elderly populations, vitamin D, prior immunity, herd immunity.but none of them explains the timing or the scale of these drastic variations
• High Level Abstractions:
• (japan,trajectories)
• (japan,nine)

Target rule match count: 43.0 Challenge: 0.19 Momentum: 0.01 WIP: 0.29